H40: falling handicap mark

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H40: falling handicap mark PROMISING negative

   because Rated 4lb or more lower than last time in a handicap: the handicapper has relented.

   is_handicap = 1 AND rating_change <= -4

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.94 on 4,086 bets, by period 0.87 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return -7.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H40: falling handicap mark

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,7900.87

   Later half2,2960.98

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   has won before: A/E 0.89 on 2,762 bets, by period 0.79 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -14.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H40: falling handicap mark

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,2380.79

   Later half1,5240.97

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   back at a trip it has won at: A/E 0.86 on 1,654 bets, by period 0.69 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -16.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H40: falling handicap mark

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half7130.69

   Later half9410.97

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   yard in form: A/E 0.87 on 1,227 bets, by period 0.75 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return +6.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H40: falling handicap mark

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5340.75

   Later half6930.96

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H40: falling handicap mark Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [back at a trip it has won at] NEGATIVE A/E 0.858 on 1654 bets (broad NEGATIVE)