H40: falling handicap mark

Mechanism and rationale

Rated 4lb or more lower than last time in a handicap: the handicapper has relented.

The rule

is_handicap = 1 AND rating_change <= -4

Reads: is_handicap, rating_change

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

is_handicap = 1 AND rating_change <= -4

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "has won before",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND rating_change <= -4) AND (prior_wins >= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "back at a trip it has won at",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND rating_change <= -4) AND (wins_at_trip >= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "yard in form",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND rating_change <= -4) AND (t30_runs >= 10 AND t30_wins >= t30_exp)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info yard in form · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,227

A/E

0.87

winners vs the prices

SP return

-25.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+6.6%

1,222 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 6.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H40-falling-handicap-mark Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [back at a trip it has won at] NEGATIVE A/E 0.858 on 1654 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H40-falling-handicap-mark (yard in form): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H40-falling-handicap-mark (back at a trip it has won at): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H40-falling-handicap-mark (has won before): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H40-falling-handicap-mark (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H40-falling-handicap-mark: H40: falling handicap mark (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.