H46: yard good at chase to hurdle

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H46: yard good at chase to hurdle PROMISING negative

   because Chase run then a hurdle, from a yard whose earlier runners making that switch beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_c2h_runs >= 12 AND tx_c2h_wins >= 1.3 * tx_c2h_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.89 on 1,045 bets, by period 0.84 · 0.92 · 0.91. info

   Betfair SP return -29.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H46: yard good at chase to hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223170.84

   2023 to a year ago5200.92

   Last year2080.91

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.97 on 933 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.96 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -26.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H46: yard good at chase to hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222710.99

   2023 to a year ago4740.96

   Last year1880.96

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   has won over hurdles: A/E 0.97 on 628 bets, by period 0.81 · 0.96 · 1.16. info

   Betfair SP return -3.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H46: yard good at chase to hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221420.81

   2023 to a year ago3430.96

   Last year1431.16

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H46: yard good at chase to hurdle Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.892 on 1045 bets (broad NEGATIVE)