H46: yard good at chase to hurdle

Mechanism and rationale

Chase run then a hurdle, from a yard whose earlier runners making that switch beat the market by 30%+.

The rule

tx_c2h_runs >= 12 AND tx_c2h_wins >= 1.3 * tx_c2h_exp

Reads: tx_c2h_runs, tx_c2h_wins, tx_c2h_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

tx_c2h_runs >= 12 AND tx_c2h_wins >= 1.3 * tx_c2h_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(tx_c2h_runs >= 12 AND tx_c2h_wins >= 1.3 * tx_c2h_exp) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "has won over hurdles",
    "rule": "(tx_c2h_runs >= 12 AND tx_c2h_wins >= 1.3 * tx_c2h_exp) AND (hurdle_wins >= 1)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info has won over hurdles · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

628

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-32.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-3.7%

143 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H46-yard-good-at-chase-to-hurdle Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.892 on 1045 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H46-yard-good-at-chase-to-hurdle (has won over hurdles): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H46-yard-good-at-chase-to-hurdle (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H46-yard-good-at-chase-to-hurdle (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H46-yard-good-at-chase-to-hurdle: H46: yard good at chase to hurdle (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.