H47: yard good at flat to jumps

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H47: yard good at flat to jumps KILLED red

   because Flat run then a jumps race, from a yard whose earlier runners making that switch beat the market by 30%+.

   tx_flat2jump_runs >= 12 AND tx_flat2jump_wins >= 1.3 * tx_flat2jump_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 1,697 bets, by period 1.14 · 1.00 · 0.71. info

   Betfair SP return -35.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.71 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H47: yard good at flat to jumps

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225421.14

   2023 to a year ago8761.00

   Last year2790.71

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H47: yard good at flat to jumps Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 1697 bets (broad RED)