Hypotheses · trainer-move · H47-yard-good-at-flat-to-jumps
H47: yard good at flat to jumps
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 1697 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H47: yard good at flat to jumps” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Flat run then a jumps race, from a yard whose earlier runners making that switch beat the market by 30%+.
The rule
tx_flat2jump_runs >= 12 AND tx_flat2jump_wins >= 1.3 * tx_flat2jump_exp
Reads: tx_flat2jump_runs, tx_flat2jump_wins, tx_flat2jump_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
tx_flat2jump_runs >= 12 AND tx_flat2jump_wins >= 1.3 * tx_flat2jump_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 1,697
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -40.6%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -35.8%
- 279 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.7%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H47-yard-good-at-flat-to-jumps Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 1697 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H47-yard-good-at-flat-to-jumps (broad): info
· importer
New idea H47-yard-good-at-flat-to-jumps: H47: yard good at flat to jumps (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.