H60: second season chaser fresh

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H60: second season chaser fresh PROMISING green

   because October-December handicap chase: a second-season chaser (4-10 chases, aged 8 or under) on its first run for 150+ days.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND chase_runs BETWEEN 4 AND 10 AND age <= 8 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.11 on 1,402 bets, by period 1.19 · 1.05 · 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return +6.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.14). Zone: all. On H60: second season chaser fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225821.19

   2023 to a year ago5561.05

   Last year2641.08

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   has won a chase: A/E 1.10 on 1,042 bets, by period 1.21 · 1.01 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +8.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.20). Zone: all. On H60: second season chaser fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224211.21

   2023 to a year ago4261.01

   Last year1951.05

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   from a yard good with fresh horses: A/E 1.01 on 122 bets, by period 1.02 · 0.85. info

   Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H60: second season chaser fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22501.02

   2023 to a year ago500.85

   Last year22–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.11 on 1,102 bets, by period 1.19 · 1.04 · 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return +12.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.15). Zone: all. On H60: second season chaser fresh

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224631.19

   2023 to a year ago4331.04

   Last year2061.08

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H60: second season chaser fresh Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.113 on 1402 bets (broad GREEN)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H60-second-season-chaser-fresh (H60: second season chaser fresh) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.11 on 1402 bets (periods 1.19 / 1.05 / 1.08); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H60-second-season-chaser-fresh