H60: second season chaser fresh

Mechanism and rationale

October-December handicap chase: a second-season chaser (4-10 chases, aged 8 or under) on its first run for 150+ days.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND chase_runs BETWEEN 4 AND 10 AND age <= 8 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, month, chase_runs, age, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND chase_runs BETWEEN 4 AND 10 AND age <= 8 AND days_since_last_run >= 150

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "has won a chase",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND chase_runs BETWEEN 4 AND 10 AND age <= 8 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (chase_wins >= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "from a yard good with fresh horses",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND chase_runs BETWEEN 4 AND 10 AND age <= 8 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (tx_fresh_runs >= 25 AND tx_fresh_wins >= 1.3 * tx_fresh_exp)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND month IN (10, 11, 12) AND chase_runs BETWEEN 4 AND 10 AND age <= 8 AND days_since_last_run >= 150) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,102

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-3.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+12.2%

203 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H60-second-season-chaser-fresh Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.113 on 1402 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H60-second-season-chaser-fresh (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H60-second-season-chaser-fresh (from a yard good with fresh horses): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H60-second-season-chaser-fresh (has won a chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H60-second-season-chaser-fresh (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H60-second-season-chaser-fresh: H60: second season chaser fresh (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.