Threads · course · H74-course-likes-up-trip
H74: course likes up trip
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 3393 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H74: course likes up trip KILLED red
because Up 20%+ in trip at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks that ride shorter than the distance, where a step up is easier than it looks.
cp_up_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_up_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_up_trip_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 3,393 bets, by period 1.06 · 0.91 · 0.51. info
Betfair SP return -82.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.51 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H74: course likes up trip
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,3761.062023 to a year ago9480.91Last year690.51Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H74: course likes up trip Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 3393 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Up 20%+ in trip at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks that ride shorter than the distance, where a step up is easier than it looks.