Hypotheses · course · H74-course-likes-up-trip
H74: course likes up trip
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 3393 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H74: course likes up trip” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Up 20%+ in trip at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Tracks that ride shorter than the distance, where a step up is easier than it looks.
The rule
cp_up_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_up_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_up_trip_exp
Reads: cp_up_trip_runs, cp_up_trip_wins, cp_up_trip_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
cp_up_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_up_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_up_trip_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,393
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -24.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -82.7%
- 69 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H74-course-likes-up-trip Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.002 on 3393 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H74-course-likes-up-trip (broad): info
· importer
New idea H74-course-likes-up-trip: H74: course likes up trip (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.