H75: course likes down trip

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H75: course likes down trip PROMISING amber

   because Down 20%+ in trip at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Stiff tracks where a horse dropping back still needs to stay.

   cp_down_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_down_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_down_trip_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.08 on 3,633 bets, by period 1.21 · 1.00 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return -13.4%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H75: course likes down trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,2991.21

   2023 to a year ago1,9291.00

   Last year4051.03

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   100+ earlier runners: A/E 1.04 on 2,730 bets, by period 1.21 · 0.98 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return -11.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H75: course likes down trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-227211.21

   2023 to a year ago1,6260.98

   Last year3831.02

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.10 on 1,446 bets, by period 1.33 · 1.05 · 0.63. info

   Betfair SP return -77.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.63 to 1.33. Zone: all. On H75: course likes down trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224131.33

   2023 to a year ago8821.05

   Last year1510.63

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.06 on 2,169 bets, by period 1.14 · 0.95 · 1.24. info

   Betfair SP return +26.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.24. Zone: all. On H75: course likes down trip

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-228771.14

   2023 to a year ago1,0400.95

   Last year2521.24

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H75: course likes down trip Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] AMBER A/E 1.105 on 1446 bets (broad AMBER)