H75: course likes down trip

Mechanism and rationale

Down 20%+ in trip at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Stiff tracks where a horse dropping back still needs to stay.

The rule

cp_down_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_down_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_down_trip_exp

Reads: cp_down_trip_runs, cp_down_trip_wins, cp_down_trip_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_down_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_down_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_down_trip_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "100+ earlier runners",
    "rule": "(cp_down_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_down_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_down_trip_exp) AND (cp_down_trip_runs >= 100)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(cp_down_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_down_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_down_trip_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(cp_down_trip_runs >= 60 AND cp_down_trip_wins >= 1.25 * cp_down_trip_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

2,169

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

-25.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+26.3%

249 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 7.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H75-course-likes-down-trip Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [jumps] AMBER A/E 1.105 on 1446 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H75-course-likes-down-trip (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H75-course-likes-down-trip (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H75-course-likes-down-trip (100+ earlier runners): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H75-course-likes-down-trip (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H75-course-likes-down-trip: H75: course likes down trip (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.