H77: course likes quick

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H77: course likes quick PROMISING negative

   because Back within 10 days at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Easy tracks that take little out of a horse.

   cp_quick_runs >= 60 AND cp_quick_wins >= 1.25 * cp_quick_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 2,667 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.97 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -36.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H77: course likes quick

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,6520.93

   2023 to a year ago7960.97

   Last year2190.97

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   100+ earlier runners: A/E 0.95 on 1,779 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.99 · 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return -33.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H77: course likes quick

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229370.91

   2023 to a year ago6710.99

   Last year1710.96

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.95 on 1,133 bets, by period 0.96 · 0.94 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return -49.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H77: course likes quick

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224650.96

   2023 to a year ago5190.94

   Last year1490.97

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 0.95 on 1,522 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.05 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -9.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H77: course likes quick

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1800.93

   2023 to a year ago2741.05

   Last year680.90

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H77: course likes quick Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.948 on 2667 bets (broad NEGATIVE)