H77: course likes quick

Mechanism and rationale

Back within 10 days at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Easy tracks that take little out of a horse.

The rule

cp_quick_runs >= 60 AND cp_quick_wins >= 1.25 * cp_quick_exp

Reads: cp_quick_runs, cp_quick_wins, cp_quick_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_quick_runs >= 60 AND cp_quick_wins >= 1.25 * cp_quick_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "100+ earlier runners",
    "rule": "(cp_quick_runs >= 60 AND cp_quick_wins >= 1.25 * cp_quick_exp) AND (cp_quick_runs >= 100)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(cp_quick_runs >= 60 AND cp_quick_wins >= 1.25 * cp_quick_exp) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(cp_quick_runs >= 60 AND cp_quick_wins >= 1.25 * cp_quick_exp) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,522

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

-38.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-9.6%

68 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H77-course-likes-quick Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.948 on 2667 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H77-course-likes-quick (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H77-course-likes-quick (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H77-course-likes-quick (100+ earlier runners): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H77-course-likes-quick (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H77-course-likes-quick: H77: course likes quick (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.