Threads · trajectory · H86-only-ran-on-when-it-was-over
H86: only ran on when it was over
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.003 on 1127 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H86: only ran on when it was over KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: held up, made no move until the final phrase, then finished strongly. The eye-catcher that was never in the race.
lt_late_only = 1 AND last_position > 1
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 1,127 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return +1.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H86: only ran on when it was over
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half4891.03Later half6380.98Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H86: only ran on when it was over Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.003 on 1127 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: held up, made no move until the final phrase, then finished strongly. The eye-catcher that was never in the race.