Hypotheses · trajectory · H86-only-ran-on-when-it-was-over
H86: only ran on when it was over
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.003 on 1127 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H86: only ran on when it was over” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: held up, made no move until the final phrase, then finished strongly. The eye-catcher that was never in the race.
The rule
lt_late_only = 1 AND last_position > 1
Reads: lt_late_only, last_position
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
lt_late_only = 1 AND last_position > 1
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 1,127
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -23.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +1.1%
- 1,122 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H86-only-ran-on-when-it-was-over Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.003 on 1127 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H86-only-ran-on-when-it-was-over (broad): info
· importer
New idea H86-only-ran-on-when-it-was-over: H86: only ran on when it was over (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.