Threads · letters · H99-fell-last-time
H99: fell last time
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: H99-fell-last-time (H99: fell last time) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.11 on 658 bets (periods 1.09 / 1.14); now PROMISING.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H99: fell last time PROMISING green
because Fell last time. Does the market over-punish the F whatever the circumstances?
last_code = 'F'
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.11 on 658 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.14. info
Betfair SP return +11.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H99: fell last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half4341.09Later half2241.14Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
chase: A/E 1.12 on 253 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.38. info
Betfair SP return +38.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.36). Zone: all. On H99: fell last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1871.02Later half661.38Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
hurdle: A/E 1.05 on 374 bets, by period 1.13 · 0.92. info
Betfair SP return -11.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H99: fell last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2361.13Later half1380.92Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
no repeat jumping errors: A/E 1.17 on 587 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.22. info
Betfair SP return +18.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.07). Zone: all. On H99: fell last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half3921.15Later half1951.22Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
back over the same obstacles: A/E 1.08 on 555 bets, by period 1.08 · 1.07. info
Betfair SP return +4.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: all. On H99: fell last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half3761.08Later half1791.07Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H99: fell last time Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [no repeat jumping errors] GREEN A/E 1.17 on 587 bets (broad GREEN)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H99-fell-last-time (H99: fell last time) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.11 on 658 bets (periods 1.09 / 1.14); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H99-fell-last-time
Where it started
Fell last time. Does the market over-punish the F whatever the circumstances?