H99: fell last time

Mechanism and rationale

Fell last time. Does the market over-punish the F whatever the circumstances?

The rule

last_code = 'F'

Reads: last_code

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_code = 'F'

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(last_code = 'F') AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "hurdle",
    "rule": "(last_code = 'F') AND (race_type = 'Hurdle')"
  },
  {
    "name": "no repeat jumping errors",
    "rule": "(last_code = 'F') AND (jumping_errors_last3 <= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "back over the same obstacles",
    "rule": "(last_code = 'F') AND (last_race_type = race_type)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info back over the same obstacles · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

555

A/E

1.08

winners vs the prices

SP return

-27.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+4.8%

555 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H99-fell-last-time Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [no repeat jumping errors] GREEN A/E 1.17 on 587 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H99-fell-last-time (back over the same obstacles): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H99-fell-last-time (no repeat jumping errors): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H99-fell-last-time (hurdle): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H99-fell-last-time (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H99-fell-last-time (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H99-fell-last-time: H99: fell last time (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.