HS2: harry on dan held up last time

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   HS2: harry on dan held up last time PROMISING green

   because Harry on Dan, the last run described as held up. Predicted level.

   jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_run_style = 'held_up'

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.08 on 186 bets, by period 1.10 · 1.06. info

   Betfair SP return +8.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.04). Zone: all. On HS2: harry on dan held up last time

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1081.10

   Later half781.06

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   HS2: harry on dan held up last time Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.081 on 186 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   HS2-harry-on-dan-held-up-last-time (HS2: harry on dan held up last time) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.08 on 186 bets (periods 1.10 / 1.06); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom HS2-harry-on-dan-held-up-last-time