Hypotheses · harry-dan · HS2-harry-on-dan-held-up-last-time

HS2: harry on dan held up last time

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.081 on 186 bets

Starts the thread “HS2: harry on dan held up last time” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Harry on Dan, the last run described as held up. Predicted level.

The rule

jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_run_style = 'held_up'

Reads: jockey, trainer, race_type, last_run_style

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_run_style = 'held_up'
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 186
A/E: 1.08; winners vs the prices
SP return: -5.7%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +8.8%; 184 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 28.0%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half1081.10

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

HS2-harry-on-dan-held-up-last-time Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.081 on 186 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for HS2-harry-on-dan-held-up-last-time (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea HS2-harry-on-dan-held-up-last-time: HS2: harry on dan held up last time (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.