HS4: harry on dan usually prominent

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   HS4: harry on dan usually prominent KILLED red

   because CONTROL: Harry on Dan, usual early position in the top third.

   jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_early_pct_avg3 >= 0.67

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.77 on 184 bets, by period 0.63 · 0.91. info

   Betfair SP return +0.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On HS4: harry on dan usually prominent

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1060.63

   Last year780.91

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   HS4: harry on dan usually prominent Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.769 on 184 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   HS4-harry-on-dan-usually-prominent (HS4: harry on dan usually prominent) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.77 on 184 bets (periods 0.63 / 0.91).

   surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom HS4-harry-on-dan-usually-prominent