HS4: harry on dan usually prominent

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: Harry on Dan, usual early position in the top third.

The rule

jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_early_pct_avg3 >= 0.67

Reads: jockey, trainer, race_type, s_early_pct_avg3

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_early_pct_avg3 >= 0.67

Kind

history

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

184

A/E

0.77

winners vs the prices

SP return

-41.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.5%

78 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 20.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. HS4-harry-on-dan-usually-prominent Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.769 on 184 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for HS4-harry-on-dan-usually-prominent (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea HS4-harry-on-dan-usually-prominent: HS4: harry on dan usually prominent (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.