HS5: others usually held up

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   HS5: others usually held up KILLED red

   because CONTROL: any chase or hurdle runner not Harry on Dan, usual early position in the bottom third.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND NOT (jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton') AND s_early_pct_avg3 IS NOT NULL AND s_early_pct_avg3 <= 0.33

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.02 on 20,486 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return +12.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On HS5: others usually held up

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago12,4641.02

   Last year8,0221.02

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   HS5: others usually held up Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 20486 bets