HS5: others usually held up

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: any chase or hurdle runner not Harry on Dan, usual early position in the bottom third.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND NOT (jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton') AND s_early_pct_avg3 IS NOT NULL AND s_early_pct_avg3 <= 0.33

Reads: race_type, jockey, trainer, s_early_pct_avg3

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND NOT (jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton') AND s_early_pct_avg3 IS NOT NULL AND s_early_pct_avg3 <= 0.33

Kind

history

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

20,486

A/E

1.02

winners vs the prices

SP return

-23.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+12.1%

8,019 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. HS5-others-usually-held-up Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 1.02 on 20486 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for HS5-others-usually-held-up (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea HS5-others-usually-held-up: HS5: others usually held up (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.