IQ100: control placed over 3m

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ100: control placed over 3m KILLED red

   because CONTROL: a chase of 3m+, and the horse has won or been placed in one before (with a measured demand). The proven stayer on paper.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.98 on 1,166 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.01. info

   Betfair SP return -4.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.01. Zone: all. On IQ100: control placed over 3m

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half8990.97

   Later half2671.01

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ100: control placed over 3m Discovery → KILLEDimport: control; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 1166 bets