IQ100: control placed over 3m

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: a chase of 3m+, and the horse has won or been placed in one before (with a measured demand). The proven stayer on paper.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, st_placed_3m_measured

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND st_placed_3m_measured >= 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,166

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-4.9%

1,166 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ100-control-placed-over-3m Discovery → KILLED import: control; best [broad] RED A/E 0.979 on 1166 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ100-control-placed-over-3m (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ100-control-placed-over-3m: IQ100: control placed over 3m (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.