Threads · control · IQ113-control-second-try-at-3m-after-passing-the-first
IQ113: control second try at 3m after passing the first
- Hypotheses
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- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: IQ113-control-second-try-at-3m-after-passing-the-first (IQ113: control second try at 3m after passing the first) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.06 on 333 bets (periods 1.05 / 1.08); now KILLED.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ113: control second try at 3m after passing the first KILLED green
because CONTROL: second chase at 3m+ after a first that did not fail by that definition and was not a fall.
race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND f3_failed = 0 AND f3_fell = 0
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.06 on 333 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +25.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.03). Zone: all. On IQ113: control second try at 3m after passing the first
Where it started
CONTROL: second chase at 3m+ after a first that did not fail by that definition and was not a fall.