IQ113: control second try at 3m after passing the first

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: second chase at 3m+ after a first that did not fail by that definition and was not a fall.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND f3_failed = 0 AND f3_fell = 0

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, f3_kind, f3_failed, f3_fell

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_kind IS NOT NULL AND f3_failed = 0 AND f3_fell = 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

333

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

-2.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+25.7%

333 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ113-control-second-try-at-3m-after-passing-the-first Discovery → KILLED import: control; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.057 on 333 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ113-control-second-try-at-3m-after-passing-the-first (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ113-control-second-try-at-3m-after-passing-the-first: IQ113: control second try at 3m after passing the first (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.