IQ121: failed first 3m try clean

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ121: failed first 3m try clean KILLED red

   because LOOK ONLY: second chase at 3m+ after a first that failed in a race that was not front-loaded, with the horse not on the pace.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_failed = 1 AND f3_tilt IS NOT NULL AND NOT f3_tilt > 0 AND NOT ((f3_gap IS NOT NULL AND f3_gap <= 0.77) OR (f3_gap IS NULL AND f3_style IN ('led', 'prominent')))

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.39 on 30 bets. info

   Betfair SP return -1.9%. Zone: all. On IQ121: failed first 3m try clean

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half24–

   Later half6–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ121: failed first 3m try clean Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.392 on 30 bets