Hypotheses · first-3m · IQ121-failed-first-3m-try-clean

IQ121: failed first 3m try clean

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] RED A/E 0.392 on 30 bets

Starts the thread “IQ121: failed first 3m try clean” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

LOOK ONLY: second chase at 3m+ after a first that failed in a race that was not front-loaded, with the horse not on the pace.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_failed = 1 AND f3_tilt IS NOT NULL AND NOT f3_tilt > 0 AND NOT ((f3_gap IS NOT NULL AND f3_gap <= 0.77) OR (f3_gap IS NULL AND f3_style IN ('led', 'prominent')))

Reads: race_type, distance_yards, f3_failed, f3_tilt, f3_gap, f3_style

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Chase' AND distance_yards >= 5280 AND f3_failed = 1 AND f3_tilt IS NOT NULL AND NOT f3_tilt > 0 AND NOT ((f3_gap IS NOT NULL AND f3_gap <= 0.77) OR (f3_gap IS NULL AND f3_style IN ('led', 'prominent')))
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 30
A/E: 0.39; winners vs the prices
SP return: -43.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -1.9%; 30 bets with a BSP

0.34dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 3.3%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half24–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ121-failed-first-3m-try-clean Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.392 on 30 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ121-failed-first-3m-try-clean (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ121-failed-first-3m-try-clean: IQ121: failed first 3m try clean (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.