IQ132: control all derham

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ132: control all derham KILLED red

   because CONTROL 1: every eligible Harry Derham runner (hurdle start 2-4 after a scored run).

   dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_derham = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.98 on 70 bets, by period 0.96. info

   Betfair SP return +19.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ132: control all derham

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half660.96

   Later half4–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.90 on 100 bets, by period 0.90. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ132: control all derham

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1000.90

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 0.91 on 99 bets, by period 0.91. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ132: control all derham

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago990.91

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.00 on 1 bets. info

   Zone: all. On IQ132: control all derham

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1–

   Last year0–

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.06 on 78 bets, by period 1.06. info

   Betfair SP return +18.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ132: control all derham

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year781.06

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ132: control all derham Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

8. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ132: control all derham Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.901 on 100 (GB 0.908, IRE 0.0), p 0.7048 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests