Hypotheses · control · IQ132-control-all-derham

IQ132: control all derham

KILLEDfailed the vaultredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.901 on 100 (GB 0.908, IRE 0.0), p 0.7048 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “IQ132: control all derham” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL 1: every eligible Harry Derham runner (hurdle start 2-4 after a scored run).

The rule

dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_derham = 1

Reads: dv_now, dv_derham

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): cb913604cf853783ff14b82d47ae816e98764cb3c371439ec91fb07a635eae8c
Frozen: 14 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Broad: dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_derham = 1
Holdout: { "direction": "positive", "frozen_in": "research/experiments/raceiq/iq_batch_10", "frozen_on": "2026-10-14", "id": "IQ132-control-all-derham", "rule": "dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_derham = 1" }
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 78
A/E: 1.06; winners vs the prices
SP return: -6.9%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +18.5%; 78 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 20.5%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 100; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 0.90; p = 0.70
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ132-control-all-derham Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.901 on 100 (GB 0.908, IRE 0.0), p 0.7048 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ132-control-all-derham Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ132-control-all-derham Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ132-control-all-derham (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ132-control-all-derham (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ132-control-all-derham (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ132-control-all-derham (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ132-control-all-derham (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ132-control-all-derham: IQ132: control all derham (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.