IQ133: control derham technique already good

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ133: control derham technique already good KILLED red

   because CONTROL 2: Harry Derham, technique at or above the median last time.

   dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_derham_good = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.86 on 44 bets, by period 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return +29.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ133: control derham technique already good

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half430.88

   Later half1–

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.08 on 62 bets, by period 1.08. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ133: control derham technique already good

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago621.08

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.10 on 61 bets, by period 1.10. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ133: control derham technique already good

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago611.10

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.00 on 1 bets. info

   Zone: all. On IQ133: control derham technique already good

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1–

   Last year0–

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 0.88 on 47 bets, by period 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return +23.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ133: control derham technique already good

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year470.88

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ133: control derham technique already good Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

8. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ133: control derham technique already good Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 1.084 on 62 (GB 1.096, IRE 0.0), p 0.4074 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests