Hypotheses · control · IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good

IQ133: control derham technique already good

KILLEDfailed the vaultredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 1.084 on 62 (GB 1.096, IRE 0.0), p 0.4074 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

Starts the thread “IQ133: control derham technique already good” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 2

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL 2: Harry Derham, technique at or above the median last time.

The rule

dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_derham_good = 1

Reads: dv_now, dv_c_derham_good

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): 604b50c7a9751d3bf1330b081692dfe44c9c17710264ea3afd845c537d3c8031
Frozen: 14 Oct, 01:00; Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Broad: dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_derham_good = 1
Holdout: { "direction": "positive", "frozen_in": "research/experiments/raceiq/iq_batch_10", "frozen_on": "2026-10-14", "id": "IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good", "rule": "dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_derham_good = 1" }
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 47
A/E: 0.88; winners vs the prices
SP return: -0.1%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +23.5%; 47 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 19.1%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets: 62; 14 Oct, 13:00
A/E: 1.08; p = 0.41
BH threshold then: 0.0034; over every vault test so far
Outcome: Failed; from the archive

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good Vault → KILLEDfailed the vault import: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 1.084 on 62 (GB 1.096, IRE 0.0), p 0.4074 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good (discovery year (reference)): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good (Ireland): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good (Britain): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ133-control-derham-technique-already-good: IQ133: control derham technique already good (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Failed the vault.