IQ143a: one off jumping error with figures

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ143a: one off jumping error with figures PROMISING green

   because CONTROL: one-off jumping error in a chase, well beaten, runners whose last run has the figure.

   (race_type = 'Chase' AND remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)) AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.50 on 340 bets, by period 1.25 · 1.90. info

   Betfair SP return +41.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.65). Zone: all. On IQ143a: one off jumping error with figures

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2031.25

   Later half1371.90

3. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ143a: one off jumping error with figures Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.505 on 340 bets

4. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ143a-one-off-jumping-error-with-figures (IQ143a: one off jumping error with figures) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.50 on 340 bets (periods 1.25 / 1.90); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ143a-one-off-jumping-error-with-figures