Hypotheses · overlay · IQ143a-one-off-jumping-error-with-figures

IQ143a: one off jumping error with figures

PROMISINGgreenPassed discovery and is being attacked. Most promising ideas die here.

best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.505 on 340 bets

Starts the thread “IQ143a: one off jumping error with figures” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

CONTROL: one-off jumping error in a chase, well beaten, runners whose last run has the figure.

The rule

(race_type = 'Chase' AND remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)) AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL

Reads: race_type, remarked_last3, jumping_errors_last3, last_jumping_error, last_position, last_beaten_lengths, s_jump_index_pct_prev

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: (race_type = 'Chase' AND remarked_last3 = 3 AND jumping_errors_last3 = 1 AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_beaten_lengths > 10)) AND s_jump_index_pct_prev IS NOT NULL
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 340
A/E: 1.50; winners vs the prices
SP return: +16.2%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +41.5%; 339 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.55

Strike rate 15.9%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half2031.25

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ143a-one-off-jumping-error-with-figures Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.505 on 340 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ143a-one-off-jumping-error-with-figures (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ143a-one-off-jumping-error-with-figures: IQ143a: one off jumping error with figures (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.