IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse PROMISING green

   because NEGATIVE: chase, with both Jump Index and ground gained jumping worse against its fields in its latest chase than two or three chases back.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 < 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 < 0

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.07 on 2,456 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return +9.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: all. On IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,1681.02

   Later half1,2881.11

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   eight or more chases: A/E 1.07 on 1,238 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.06. info

   Betfair SP return +10.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: all. On IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5411.07

   Later half6971.06

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.05 on 1,789 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return +3.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.11. Zone: all. On IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half8640.99

   Later half9251.11

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.066 on 2456 bets

6. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ19-chaser-whose-jumping-is-getting-worse (IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.07 on 2456 bets (periods 1.02 / 1.11); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ19-chaser-whose-jumping-is-getting-worse