IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: chase, with both Jump Index and ground gained jumping worse against its fields in its latest chase than two or three chases back.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 < 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 < 0

Reads: race_type, s_n3, s_jump_index_rel_trend3, s_lgj_rel_trend3

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 < 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 < 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "eight or more chases",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 < 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 < 0) AND (prior_chase_runs >= 8)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND s_n3 >= 2 AND s_jump_index_rel_trend3 < 0 AND s_lgj_rel_trend3 < 0) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,789

A/E

1.05

winners vs the prices

SP return

-11.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+3.0%

1,781 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 17.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ19-chaser-whose-jumping-is-getting-worse Discovery → PROMISING import: best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.066 on 2456 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ19-chaser-whose-jumping-is-getting-worse (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ19-chaser-whose-jumping-is-getting-worse (eight or more chases): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ19-chaser-whose-jumping-is-getting-worse (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea IQ19-chaser-whose-jumping-is-getting-worse: IQ19: chaser whose jumping is getting worse (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.