IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground PROMISING green

   because The remark records a jumping error last time and the horse was in the bottom quarter of its field for ground gained jumping, and was beaten. The excuse is real.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.08 on 1,801 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.22. info

   Betfair SP return +11.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.19). Zone: all. On IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,2291.03

   Later half5721.22

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 1.06 on 643 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return -10.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.12). Zone: all. On IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4671.03

   Later half1761.15

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 1.10 on 1,565 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.24. info

   Betfair SP return +11.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.19). Zone: all. On IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,0841.05

   Later half4811.24

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.08 on 932 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.17. info

   Betfair SP return +12.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.12). Zone: all. On IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half6431.05

   Later half2891.17

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [last run in today's code] GREEN A/E 1.105 on 1565 bets

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ32-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-ground (IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.08 on 1801 bets (periods 1.03 / 1.22); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ32-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-ground