IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground

Mechanism and rationale

The remark records a jumping error last time and the horse was in the bottom quarter of its field for ground gained jumping, and was beaten. The excuse is real.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1

Reads: race_type, last_jumping_error, l_lgj_pct, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

932

A/E

1.08

winners vs the prices

SP return

-7.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+12.7%

931 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ32-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-ground Discovery → PROMISING import: best [last run in today's code] GREEN A/E 1.105 on 1565 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ32-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-ground (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ32-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-ground (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ32-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-ground (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ32-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-ground (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea IQ32-mistake-in-the-remark-that-cost-ground: IQ32: mistake in the remark that cost ground (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.