IQ35: lost ground everywhere

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ35: lost ground everywhere PROMISING green

   because NEGATIVE: last run bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping and bottom quarter for the share of its jumps that were good. It loses a little at every obstacle: a trait, not an accident.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct <= 0.25

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.04 on 7,180 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +7.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.02). Zone: all. On IQ35: lost ground everywhere

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4,9991.03

   Later half2,1811.05

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 1.09 on 2,313 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.12. info

   Betfair SP return +7.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On IQ35: lost ground everywhere

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,7141.07

   Later half5991.12

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 1.05 on 6,187 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +10.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ35: lost ground everywhere

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4,3811.05

   Later half1,8061.05

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.04 on 3,213 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return +2.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: all. On IQ35: lost ground everywhere

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2,2301.04

   Later half9831.03

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ35: lost ground everywhere Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [chase today] GREEN A/E 1.086 on 2313 bets

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ35-lost-ground-everywhere (IQ35: lost ground everywhere) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.04 on 7180 bets (periods 1.03 / 1.05); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ35-lost-ground-everywhere