IQ35: lost ground everywhere

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: last run bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping and bottom quarter for the share of its jumps that were good. It loses a little at every obstacle: a trait, not an accident.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_lgj_pct, l_positive_jump_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct <= 0.25) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct <= 0.25) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND l_positive_jump_pct <= 0.25) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,213

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+2.9%

3,209 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ35-lost-ground-everywhere Discovery → PROMISING import: best [chase today] GREEN A/E 1.086 on 2313 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ35-lost-ground-everywhere (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ35-lost-ground-everywhere (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ35-lost-ground-everywhere (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ35-lost-ground-everywhere (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea IQ35-lost-ground-everywhere: IQ35: lost ground everywhere (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.