Threads · jumping-under-pressure · IQ36-ridden-forward-fast-into-obstacles-lost-ground
IQ36: ridden forward fast into obstacles lost ground
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 344 bets
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ36: ridden forward fast into obstacles lost ground KILLED red
because Last run: led or raced prominently, top quarter for speed into its obstacles, bottom quarter for ground gained at them. The jumping went because it was asked to attack; it can come back under a quieter ride.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 344 bets, by period 1.18 · 0.62. info
Betfair SP return -12.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.62 to 1.18. Zone: all. On IQ36: ridden forward fast into obstacles lost ground
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2401.18Later half1040.62Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ36: ridden forward fast into obstacles lost ground Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 344 bets
Where it started
Last run: led or raced prominently, top quarter for speed into its obstacles, bottom quarter for ground gained at them. The jumping went because it was asked to attack; it can come back under a quieter ride.