Hypotheses · jumping-under-pressure · IQ36-ridden-forward-fast-into-obstacles-lost-ground

IQ36: ridden forward fast into obstacles lost ground

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 344 bets

Starts the thread “IQ36: ridden forward fast into obstacles lost ground” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: led or raced prominently, top quarter for speed into its obstacles, bottom quarter for ground gained at them. The jumping went because it was asked to attack; it can come back under a quieter ride.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, last_run_style, l_entry_speed_pct, l_lgj_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent') AND l_entry_speed_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25
Kind: remarks
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 344
A/E: 0.99; winners vs the prices
SP return: -25.3%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -12.3%; 344 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 14.2%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

Earlier half2401.18

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

IQ36-ridden-forward-fast-into-obstacles-lost-ground Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.995 on 344 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for IQ36-ridden-forward-fast-into-obstacles-lost-ground (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea IQ36-ridden-forward-fast-into-obstacles-lost-ground: IQ36: ridden forward fast into obstacles lost ground (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.