Threads · jumping-holdout · IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time
IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Shadow
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 23:21
Where it stands: forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time SHADOW
because Last run: bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, whatever else. Batch 2 predicted a negative twice and got 1.04-1.06 both times: the market may mark a costly round of jumping down too far.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.06 on 19,386 bets, by period 1.06. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago19,3861.06Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Britain: A/E 1.07 on 14,104 bets, by period 1.07. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago14,1041.07Last year0–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Ireland: A/E 1.00 on 5,282 bets, by period 1.00. info
Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago5,2821.00Last year0–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
discovery year (reference): A/E 1.05 on 9,790 bets, by period 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +3.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-220–2023 to a year ago0–Last year9,7901.05Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.06 on 19386 (GB 1.074, IRE 1.004), p 0.0127 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding
Tested15 Oct, 23:21
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time (IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.060 on 19386 bets (p 0.013, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.
result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time
Tested16 Oct, 23:21
forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info
Zone: forward. On IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time
Where it started
Last run: bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, whatever else. Batch 2 predicted a negative twice and got 1.04-1.06 both times: the market may mark a costly round of jumping down too far.