Hypotheses · jumping-holdout · IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time
IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time
forward A/E 0.0 on 0 bets, SP ROI None%, BSP ROI None% (p None)
Starts the thread “IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the RaceiQ holdout
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 4
Mechanism and rationale
Last run: bottom quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, whatever else. Batch 2 predicted a negative twice and got 1.04-1.06 both times: the market may mark a costly round of jumping down too far.
The rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25Reads: race_type, l_lgj_pct
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- 5a329f84c869ff1e782063bc7f76e4daefb2ca02a5796546b525844a4ae113aa
- Frozen
- 13 Oct, 01:00
- Nothing in the definition can change after this.
- Direction
positive
- Frozen in
research/experiments/raceiq/iq_holdout
- Frozen on
2026-10-13
- Id
IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time
- Rule
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25
Result (from the archive)
info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 9,790
- A/E
- 1.05
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -28.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +3.5%
- 9,782 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 7.4%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
- Bets
- 19,386
- 14 Oct, 13:00
- A/E
- 1.06
- p = 0.013
- BH threshold then
- 0.0034
- over every vault test so far
- Outcome
- Failed
- from the archive
Forward record
- forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info
0 bets · · 15 Oct, 23:21
Breakdown
betsA/E0.71.01.3forward0–Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. - forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info
0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:21
Breakdown
betsA/E0.71.01.3forward0–
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
Job 2099 finished
· engine:compute-1
forward result for IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info
· engine:evaluator
compute-1 took job 2099 (forward_check, attempt 1)
· compute-1
Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system
· engine:scheduler
Job 7 finished
· engine:compute-2
forward result for IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info
· engine:evaluator
compute-2 took job 7 (forward_check, attempt 1)
· compute-2
Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system
· engine:scheduler
IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time Vault → SHADOW import: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.06 on 19386 (GB 1.074, IRE 1.004), p 0.0127 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests; LEARNINGS read it as holding
· importer
IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault
· importer
IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen
· importer
import result for IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time (discovery year (reference)): info
· importer
import result for IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time (Ireland): info
· importer
import result for IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time (Britain): info
· importer
import result for IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info
· importer
New idea IQ52-lost-most-ground-jumping-last-time: IQ52: lost most ground jumping last time (import)
· importer