Threads · pressure · IQ75-untested-winner
IQ75: untested winner
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.206 on 333 bets
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ75: untested winner KILLED amber
because NEGATIVE: won last time without ever being pressed late on. Nothing got near it, so nothing is known about what it does when something does.
race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.97 on 2,211 bets, by period 1.02 · 0.91. info
Betfair SP return -9.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.02. Zone: all. On IQ75: untested winner
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1,1431.02Later half1,0680.91Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.94 on 811 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.81. info
Betfair SP return -15.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ75: untested winner
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half5461.00Later half2650.81Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.99 on 1,400 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.95. info
Betfair SP return -6.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.05. Zone: all. On IQ75: untested winner
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half5971.05Later half8030.95Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
stiff finish: A/E 1.09 on 519 bets, by period 1.18 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return +3.7%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.18. Zone: all. On IQ75: untested winner
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2581.18Later half2611.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
ten runners or fewer: A/E 1.00 on 1,313 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.92. info
Betfair SP return +0.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.08. Zone: all. On IQ75: untested winner
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half6811.08Later half6320.92Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
soft or heavy: A/E 1.21 on 333 bets, by period 1.26 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return -3.1%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.24). Zone: all. On IQ75: untested winner
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2491.26Later half841.02Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
led or prominent last time: A/E 1.03 on 775 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -4.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.07. Zone: all. On IQ75: untested winner
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half4091.07Later half3660.97Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.97 on 1,948 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.91. info
Betfair SP return -9.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.03. Zone: all. On IQ75: untested winner
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1,0151.03Later half9330.91Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ75: untested winner Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.206 on 333 bets
Where it started
NEGATIVE: won last time without ever being pressed late on. Nothing got near it, so nothing is known about what it does when something does.