IQ75: untested winner

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: won last time without ever being pressed late on. Nothing got near it, so nothing is known about what it does when something does.

The rule

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0

Reads: race_type, last_position, l_pressed

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0) AND (race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "stiff finish",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0) AND (track_stiff_finish = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "ten runners or fewer",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0) AND (field_size <= 10)"
  },
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "led or prominent last time",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0) AND (last_run_style IN ('led', 'prominent'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Flat', 'Chase', 'Hurdle') AND last_position = 1 AND l_pressed = 0) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,948

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-9.8%

1,942 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 20.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ75-untested-winner Discovery → KILLED import: best [soft or heavy] AMBER A/E 1.206 on 333 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ75-untested-winner (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ75-untested-winner (led or prominent last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ75-untested-winner (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ75-untested-winner (ten runners or fewer): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ75-untested-winner (stiff finish): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for IQ75-untested-winner (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. import result for IQ75-untested-winner (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

9. import result for IQ75-untested-winner (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. New idea IQ75-untested-winner: IQ75: untested winner (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.