MK1: old below winning class

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   MK1: old below winning class KILLED red

   because Aged 10+, handicap chase, a lower class than its last win (a chase). Predicted above the market.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_win_type = 'Chase' AND race_class IS NOT NULL AND last_win_class IS NOT NULL AND race_class > last_win_class

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.93 on 222 bets, by period 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -6.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On MK1: old below winning class

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1900.89

   Later half32–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   MK1: old below winning class Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.926 on 222 bets