MK1: old below winning class

Mechanism and rationale

Aged 10+, handicap chase, a lower class than its last win (a chase). Predicted above the market.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_win_type = 'Chase' AND race_class IS NOT NULL AND last_win_class IS NOT NULL AND race_class > last_win_class

Reads: race_type, age, is_handicap, last_win_type, race_class, last_win_class

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND age >= 10 AND is_handicap = 1 AND last_win_type = 'Chase' AND race_class IS NOT NULL AND last_win_class IS NOT NULL AND race_class > last_win_class

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

222

A/E

0.93

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-6.3%

222 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. MK1-old-below-winning-class Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.926 on 222 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for MK1-old-below-winning-class (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea MK1-old-below-winning-class: MK1: old below winning class (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.